2022 NASCAR Richmond odds: Surprising picks from Toyota 400 owners, predictions by model that hit Larson wins

The NASCAR calendar will continue with the 2022 Toyota Owners 400 on Sunday at Richmond Raceway. Billed as “America’s first short track”, Richmond Raceway is a three-quarter mile D-shaped oval that has hosted 130 Cup races since 1953. “The King”, Richard Petty, is a record 13 there occasions. Kyle Busch is a six-time winner at Richmond and will be looking for a strong performance when the NASCAR Richmond green flag drops at 3:30 p.m. ET.

Busch is 17-2 in Caesars Sportsbook’s 2022 Toyota Owners 400 odds. His two Joe Gibbs Racing teammates, Denny Hamlin and Martin Truex Jr., who each have three NASCAR wins at Richmond, are also 17-2. Defending NASCAR Cup Series champion Kyle Larson is the 6-1 favorite atop the 2022 NASCAR odds table at Richmond. Before you run through the 2022 Toyota Owners 400 starting lineup and make 2022 NASCAR Richmond predictions, be sure to check out the latest 2022 Toyota Owners 400 Picks from SportsLine’s Proven Projection Model.

Developed by Fantasy pro and SportsLine predictive data engineer Mike McClure, this proprietary NASCAR prediction model simulates each race 10,000 times, taking into account factors such as track history and recent results.

In the 2021 season, McClure nailed Martin Truex Jr. to win at Martinsville for a solid 3-1 win. Then he called Chase Elliott to win at Road America for a 5-2 payout. McClure’s model also called Larson’s win at Texas for an 11-4 payout and win at Kansas for a 9-4 payout in back-to-back weeks before nailing Larson to win the season finale in Phoenix for win the 2021 NASCAR Cup championship.

In total, he had five of Larson’s wins in a historic season and also went 10-5 on his head-to-head matchup predictions to start the 2022 season. Then, last week, Ross Chastain was big to win, which gave him a much better chance of winning than his 40-1 odds implied. Anyone who followed his example on these games saw huge returns on their NASCAR Picks.

Now the model has simulated the 2022 NASCAR Richmond race 10,000 times. Head over to SportsLine to see the full expected 2022 Toyota Owners 400 standings.

Top 400 2022 Toyota Owner Predictions

One surprise: The model is high on Christopher Bell, even though he’s a 17-1 long shot in the final 2022 NASCAR at Richmond. He is a target for anyone looking for a huge salary. After finishing outside the top 20 in four of his first five starts this season, Bell had a strong run in Austin at the Circuit of the Americas and earned a third-place finish at the 2022 EchoPark Grand Prix automobile.

Richmond Raceway has been ringing nice lately. Bell has finished third and fourth in his last two Cup starts at Richmond and is also a three-time winner there in an Xfinity car.

And a huge shocker: Kyle Larson, the 6-1 Vegas favorite, stumbles big and barely cracks the top five. There are much better values ​​in this 2022 Toyota Owners 400 starting grid. Larson is coming off a historic 10-win season in which he won his first NASCAR championship and already had a win in 2022, but it was a rollercoaster season for the 29-year-old.

He finished 32nd at the Daytona 500 before winning at Fontana and finishing second at Las Vegas. But in his last three races, Larson has finished 29th or worse and slipped back to 16th in the NASCAR standings. Larson picked up a win at Richmond in 2017 but finished outside the top 10 in eight of his 14 career starts at Richmond Raceway in a Cup car. He has only led by laps in one of his last six starts there.

How to Make NASCAR Richmond 2022 Picks

The model is also targeting two other drivers with 2022 NASCAR odds at Richmond of 15-1 or higher to make a serious run at the checkered flag. Anyone who backs these drivers could hit it big. You can see all of the model’s NASCAR picks on SportsLine.

So who wins the 2022 Toyota Owners 400? And what long shots make a race at the checkered flag? Check out the latest NASCAR 2022 odds at Richmond below, then visit SportsLine now to see the full ranking of the projected 2022 Toyota Owners 400, all from the model that correctly predicted five of Kyle Larson’s wins last season.

2022 Toyota owners 400 ratings

Kyle Larson 6-1
Chase Elliott 15-2
Denny Hamlin 17-2
Kyle Busch 17-2
Martin Truex Jr. 17-2
Ryan Blaney 10-1
Joey Logan 10-1
Ross Chestnut 10-1
Kevin Harvick 15-1
Tyler Red Dick 15-1
Christopher Bell 17-1
Chase Briscoe 18-1
Alex Bowman 20-1
Austin Cindric 30-1
Aric Almirola 30-1
Brad Keselowski 40-1
Daniel Suarez 40-1
Austin Dillon 50-1
Kurt Busch 50-1
Erik Jones 75-1
Cole Custer 100-1
Ricky Stenhouse Jr. 150-1
Bubba Wallace 150-1
AJ Allmendinger 150-1
Chris Buescher 250-1
Harrison Burton 250-1
Justin Haley 250-1
Ty Dillon 500-1
Greg Biffle 1000-1
Michael McDowell 1000-1
Todd Gilliland 1000-1
Corey Lajoie 1500-1
Landon Cassill 2000-1
Andy Laly 2500-1
Cody Ware 5000-1
Garrett Smithley 5000-1

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