Most brands are seeing a rebound in new vehicle supply – Remarketing

Asian non-luxury brands and Japanese and European luxury brands continue to have the lowest inventory, measured in days of supply.

Graphic: Cox Automotive

New-vehicle inventory ended October at its highest level since May 2021, and prices remained high, according to Cox Automotive’s analysis of vAuto available inventory data released Nov. 16.

Over the past three months, all but four of the major brands have seen their inventories increase. The question is: will demand follow supply?

“The supply situation in the new-vehicle market has improved significantly over the past few months, Charlie Chesbrough, senior economist at Cox Automotive, said in a press release. “But with interest rates rising and consumer optimism waning, the key question now is whether buyers will be willing and able to buy.”

Total U.S. supply of available unsold new vehicles stood at 1.56 million units at the end of October, compared to 1.32 million revised vehicles at the end of September. Days supply jumped to 49, the highest since May 2021, and from a revised 43-day supply at the end of September.

Supply at the end of the month was 78% higher, or 680,000 units, than at the end of October 2021. Day supply was 70% higher than the same period a year ago.

While inventory showed a significant uptick, it remains low by historical standards. At the end of October 2020, the offer amounted to 2.59 million vehicles for a 65-day supply. For October 2019 before the pandemic, the supply reached 3.49 million vehicles for an 86-day supply.

At the end of October, the industry had an inventory of non-luxury vehicles totaling 1.32 million vehicles for a 49-day supply. That was up from 1.12 million a month earlier for a 40-day supply. The luxury offer amounts to 222,469 vehicles for 51 days of supply. That compares to a month earlier, when there were just under 200,000 units for a 47-day supply.

Cox Automotive’s day supply is based on the daily sales rate for the most recent 30-day period, in this case ending October 31, when approximately 941,368 vehicles were sold. This was the highest over a 30-day period since May 2021. Official full-month sales were up 10% from a year ago for a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of October of 14.9 million, the highest since January.

Asian and European brands still have the lowest supply

Asian non-luxury brands and Japanese and European luxury brands continue to have the lowest inventory measured by days’ supply, according to Cox Automotive’s analysis of vAuto’s on-hand inventory data.

In terms of days of supply, the non-luxury brands with the lowest inventory were Toyota, Kia, Honda and Subaru, respectively. The luxury brands with the lowest inventory were Lexus, Land Rover, Acura and BMW, in that order.

Along with low-volume high-performance cars, minivans had the lowest supply, followed by compact, subcompact and midsize cars, which are in high demand for their fuel efficiency in a market with high fuel prices. . The hybrid offer also remained in the lower bracket.

At the top of the supply lineup were large luxury cars, luxury subcompact SUVs, and full-size pickup trucks from domestic automakers.

“Typically, the last quarter of the year is a fast selling season for big trucks, but this year may be different,” Chesbrough said. “A decline in housing starts, which is correlated with truck sales, combined with high interest rates, could stifle truck sales, which, in turn, could hurt profits, especially for domestic manufacturers. . We could see incentives on these trucks as inventories return to pre-pandemic levels. »

Of the 30 top-selling models in the 30 days to October 31, most were Asian brands, primarily Kia, Toyota, Honda and Subaru. A few domestic models — the Chevrolet Trailblazer and Ford Bronco — fell to the low end this month. Kia Sportage and Toyota RAV 4 were at the very bottom with a mere 19 day supply. Of the top 30 models, full-size domestic pickup trucks and SUVs had the most inventory, with the Ram 1500 having the most.

As has been the case for months, the lower the price category, the tighter the supply. Below $20,000 the day supply was 24. Between $20,000 and $30,000 the day supply was 32. All other price categories had a 50+ day supply.

Rise in asking price slows

The average listing price — or asking price — was $46,317 at the end of October, up slightly from the revised $46,212 at the end of September, according to Cox Automotive’s analysis of vAuto’s available inventory data. The listing price is only 4% higher than a year ago and remains high compared to past years.

The average transaction price (ATP) — or price paid — rose to $48,281, but remained below the all-time high of $48,301 set in August, according to Kelley Blue Book.

The incentives remained stable in October 2022 at 2.1% of the average transaction price. A year ago, in October 2021, incentives averaged 4.3% of ATP.

Originally posted on Vehicle Remarketing

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